A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
