Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
